Key Risk Indicators
10 Live Indicators · BSL MPS 26 Mar 2026Current Price
$120
USD per barrel
Budget Baseline
$70
FY2026 Budget assumption
Absolute Variance
+$50
Per barrel above baseline
% Deviation
+71%
CRITICAL — above baseline
Oil Shock & Inflation Path
Critical TransmissionBrent Crude Oil Price (USD/bbl)
Historical + conflict scenarios vs budget assumption USD 70
Capital Economics · FY2026 Budget Speech · BSL MPS
Headline Inflation (%) — 2021 to 2026
BSL MPS 26 Mar 2026: 4.35%→6.38%→8.05% ★ | IMF WEO: 11.6%
BSL MPS 26 March 2026 · IMF WEO April 2026
Macro Scorecard
Monitor CloselyReal GDP Growth (%)
BSL MPS projects 4.5% in 2026 | Scenario A: 2.75% | Scenario B: 0.75%
Overall Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
Consolidation path vs conflict deterioration | Budget: -2.3%
Gross International Reserves (Months)
Q4 2025: 2.1 months (BSL MPS) | IMF minimum floor: 3.0 months
Revenue vs Expenditure (% of GDP)
FY2026 Budget baseline vs conflict scenario fiscal deterioration
Fuel Import Cost Escalation (USD Million)
Scenario B adds USD 220m/yr above budget — equivalent to 2.6% of GDP
Fiscal Accounts
| Indicator | Unit | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | H1 2025 | Budget 2026 | Scenario A | Scenario B | Status |
|---|
Fiscal Risk Progress Bars
Gross International Reserves (Months) vs IMF Floor
Q4 2025 improved to 2.1 months (BSL MPS) — still below IMF 3.0-month minimum
BSL MPS 26 March 2026 · IMF CR 26/40
NLe / USD Exchange Rate — Official vs Parallel Market
Official: 23.0 | Parallel: 24.1 | Spread: 1.1 NLe | Sc.B depreciation risk: 15%+
External Sector Detail
| Indicator | Unit | 2024 | H1 2025 | Budget 26 | Sc.A | Sc.B | Status | Source |
|---|
BSL Monetary Policy Statement · 26 March 2026 · Governor: Dr. Ibrahim L. Stevens, PhD
MPR HELD UNCHANGED at 16.75% (Board approved 27 Mar, effective 31 Mar 2026) ·
SLFR: 20.75% ·
SDFR: 11.25%
Inflation (accelerating): 4.35% (Dec-25) → 6.38% (Jan-26) → 8.05% (Feb-26) — fuel pump price adjustment + 2026 Finance Act measures
GIR: 2.1 months (Q4 2025) — below IMF 3.0m floor · Reserve money growth: 12.77% (within IMF-ECF target of 14.55%) · Credit to private sector: +48.99% · NPL: below 10% threshold · Banking system: Stable
GDP 2026 projection: 4.5% · Next MPC: 16 June 2026
Inflation (accelerating): 4.35% (Dec-25) → 6.38% (Jan-26) → 8.05% (Feb-26) — fuel pump price adjustment + 2026 Finance Act measures
GIR: 2.1 months (Q4 2025) — below IMF 3.0m floor · Reserve money growth: 12.77% (within IMF-ECF target of 14.55%) · Credit to private sector: +48.99% · NPL: below 10% threshold · Banking system: Stable
GDP 2026 projection: 4.5% · Next MPC: 16 June 2026
MPR Decision Rationale
MPC 26 March 2026
The MPC held the MPR UNCHANGED at 16.75%. BSL assessed that inflation is primarily supply-side and imported in origin — driven by the global oil price shock — and that a rate increase would suppress economic activity without addressing the root cause. The neutral stance preserves growth momentum while monitoring pass-through effects on underlying inflation. A data-dependent approach remains in effect ahead of the June 2026 MPC.
Inflation & Real Interest Rate
Real rate compressing as inflation accelerates
Headline inflation has been accelerating: 4.35% → 6.38% → 8.05%. The real interest rate (MPR minus latest inflation) is currently +8.7pp — positive but narrowing rapidly. If Scenario B inflation materialises (28–40%+), the real rate turns sharply negative, significantly eroding the policy corridor's effectiveness and creating strong incentives for capital flight and dollarisation.
Credit & Reserve Aggregates
IMF ECF Programme Targets
Reserve money growth of 12.77% remains within the IMF ECF ceiling of 14.55% — a key programme anchor. Credit to the private sector grew +48.99%, concentrated in services. NPLs remain below the 10% regulatory threshold. The banking system is assessed as Stable by BSL, with adequate capitalisation. However, further oil-driven inflation may impair household debt servicing capacity by Q3 2026.
MPR vs Headline Inflation — Easing Cycle Under Pressure
MPR held neutral as inflation reaccelerates
BSL Interest Rate Structure — 31 March 2026
Policy corridor (SDFR–MPR–SLFR) and T-Bill yield curve
Monetary & Credit Aggregates
| Indicator | Unit | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Q4 2025 / Dec-25 | Latest | Sc.A Target | Sc.B Response | Source |
|---|
Ring-Fence Directive Required — Ministerial Action Needed
NaCSA Cash Transfers (20,000 HH) · School Feeding (800,000+ pupils) · FHCI · FQSE must be protected from any fiscal adjustment. Contact WFP / World Bank / IsDB for emergency co-financing. Poverty-growth elasticity η = 1.3: a 1% real income loss → 1.3 percentage point poverty increase.
Extreme Poverty Rate (%) — 2020 to 2026
USD 3/day 2021 PPP · World Bank elasticity η=1.3 applied to conflict scenarios
Food Security Indicators — 2025 vs 2026 Scenarios
Food insecure / Rice self-sufficiency / Undernourished
Welfare Indicators
| Indicator | Unit | 2024 | 2025e | Budget 26 | Scenario A | Scenario B | Source |
|---|
Analytical Disclaimer — IMF Alignment
Scenarios A and B are risk illustrations for contingency planning — outcomes if corrective policy action is not taken. They do NOT imply IMF ECF programme accommodation of fiscal deterioration at these magnitudes. Government remains fully committed to the domestic primary balance target. IMF WEO baseline: oil USD 82/bbl, growth 4.0%, inflation 11.6% in 2026.
Budget Target
FY2026 Pre-Conflict Framework
GDP Growth4.6%
Inflation (avg)~6–8%
Fiscal Deficit-2.3% GDP
Primary Balance+1.6% GDP
GIR (months)2.5
Curr. Acct Def.~3.0% GDP
Extreme Poverty~48%
IMF ECF StatusOn Track
Scenario A
Partial De-escalation · Mid-2026
GDP Growth2.5–3.0%
Inflation (avg)15–20%
Fiscal Deficit4.0–5.5% GDP
Primary Balance~0 to +0.5%
GIR (months)1.2–1.7
Curr. Acct Def.5.5–7.0%
Extreme Poverty50–53%
IMF ECF StatusModification Needed
Scenario B
Prolonged Conflict · Year-End
GDP Growth0–1.5%
Inflation (avg)28–40%+
Fiscal Deficit6–8%+ GDP
Primary Balance~-2.0%
GIR (months)<1.0
Curr. Acct Def.7–9%+
Extreme Poverty55–60%+
IMF ECF StatusAt Risk
Scenario Comparison — Budget vs Scenario A vs Scenario B
GDP Growth % · Inflation % · Fiscal Deficit % GDP · Current Account % · Poverty %
Risk Heat Map — Likelihood × Impact
Click a cell to see risks at that L×I intersection
LIKELIHOOD (1→5)
IMPACT (5→1)
Risk Score Distribution (L×I)
All 12 identified risks sorted by composite score
Full Risk Register
12 Risks · Sorted by Score| Risk Channel | Category | L | I | Score | Status | Dir. | Sc.A Impact | Sc.B Impact | Recommended Action |
|---|
Dynamic Monthly Tracker — Fully Editable
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Data Sources Guide
Where to Find Manual DataBank of Sierra Leone (BSL)
- MPR/SLFR/SDFR: bsl.gov.sl → Monetary Policy → MPS (quarterly)
- Headline Inflation: BSL MPS or NRA CPI data release (monthly)
- GIR / Reserves: bsl.gov.sl → Statistics → External Sector
- NLe/USD Rate: BSL Exchange Rates page (daily)
- T-Bill Rates: BSL weekly auction results
Ministry of Finance (MoF)
- Fiscal accounts: mof.gov.sl → Budget Documents
- Fuel import data: NRA quarterly trade statistics
- Agricultural data: Ministry of Agriculture seasonal report
IMF
- WEO projections: imf.org/WEO (Apr & Oct)
- ECF status: imf.org → Sierra Leone
- Commodity prices: IMF Primary Commodity Prices (monthly)
World Bank & Other
- Poverty: pip.worldbank.org → Sierra Leone
- Food security: FAO GIEWS · WFP Sierra Leone
- Brent crude: US EIA Daily Brent